I just found a link to where Royal Dutch Shell publishes some of their scenario planning online. Shell invented the concept of Scenario Planning back in the 70s when hit by the unexpected oil shortage. They are meant to be a bunch of expected results based on wildcards that one can test one’s plans against.
A microsite about their long term strategy. Which has to be read with some objectivity as it is all PR and they wouldn’t publish anything that would be damaging or give any real competitive advantage.
But there is some interesting stuff about social connections over the next 50 years. While maybe not “right” it is split into thoughtful issues and does have some pretty diagrams.
February 10th, 2004 at 12:42 pm
go and look at http://www.test.org.uk/archives/001836.html
for a recent description of their way of working